tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 09:03, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Denver DEN 13:31 → LAS 14:44UA 493 7h 41m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5895 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:27 → LAS 10:30UA 1767 6h 40m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 4852 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 38m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54DL 1680 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 02m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → SGF 06:06 → DFW 07:48AA 3842 · flown by Envoy 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → LAS 11:34AA 1482 7h 28m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SGF 15:30 → ATL 18:26DL 4854 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825 9h 05m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SGF 11:32 → ATL 14:27DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 20m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SGF 13:33 → DEN 14:48UA 5541 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 15:54 → LAS 16:56UA 2424 5h 23m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SGF 15:05 → IAH 17:10UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 29m Houston IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406 6h 52m 71% 62%
UnitedDetails → SGF 15:07 → ORD 17:02UA 4466 · flown by GoJet 1h 11m Chicago ORD 18:13 → LAS 20:09UA 1703 7h 02m 72% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON