Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5024 SHV 10:13 → ATL 13:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4111 SHV 17:16 → ATL 20:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5024 Endeavor	SHV 10:13	ATL 13:08	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
9E 5001 Endeavor	SHV 10:30	ATL 13:19	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 3504 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:00	ATL 09:00	8%	3%	0.4%	91%
DL 4117 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 07:46	ATL 10:38	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 3507 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 12:59	ATL 15:55	13%	5%	0.6%	75%
DL 4111 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:16	ATL 20:13	16%	4%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON