Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5561 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 08:45	DEN 10:19	11%	5%	0.5%	82%
OO 5509 SkyWest	SHV 16:39	DEN 18:05	13%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Shreveport). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SHV 06:00 → ATL 09:00DL 3504 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706	8h 00m	98%	90%
American Details →	SHV 06:52 → CLT 10:11AA 4901 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 12:53 → DEN 14:40AA 2174	8h 48m	98%	88%
United Details →	SHV 15:35 → IAH 16:50UA 5837 · flown by SkyWest	3h 36m Houston	IAH 20:26 → DEN 22:26UA 685	7h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SHV 12:59 → ATL 15:55DL 3507 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	8h 44m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SHV 07:46 → ATL 10:38DL 4117 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 14m	93%	84%
United Details →	SHV 11:49 → IAH 13:19UA 4957 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 41m Houston	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	5h 54m	97%	83%
American Details →	SHV 06:01 → DFW 07:24AA 6419 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	6h 45m	95%	79%
American Details →	SHV 09:54 → DFW 11:07AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420	5h 27m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON