Today: AA 6419 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet today AA 6419 SHV 06:04 → DFW 07:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 9913 SHV 18:23 → DFW 19:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:04	DFW 07:27	8%	4%	0.6%	91%
OO 6321 SkyWest	SHV 06:03	DFW 07:19	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 09:55	DFW 11:08	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
MQ 3479 Envoy	SHV 14:10	DFW 15:24	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 6364 SkyWest	SHV 10:10	DFW 11:32	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 6347 SkyWest	SHV 11:51	DFW 13:06	16%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 5649 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SHV 14:33	DFW 15:48	16%	9%	0.8%	91%
OO 6331 SkyWest	SHV 12:18	DFW 13:30	17%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 6464 SkyWest	SHV 18:48	DFW 20:04	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 18:30	DFW 19:53	19%	5%	0.6%	62%
OO 6341 SkyWest	SHV 08:21	DFW 09:37	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 9913 SkyWest	SHV 18:23	DFW 19:40	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON