Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5843 SHV 07:14 → IAH 08:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5959 SHV 17:53 → IAH 19:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5843 SkyWest	SHV 07:14	IAH 08:49	10%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 4957 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	SHV 11:49	IAH 13:19	11%	3%	0.9%	81%
OO 5804 SkyWest	SHV 09:21	IAH 10:38	11%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 5837 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 15:35	IAH 16:50	14%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 5959 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:53	IAH 19:07	18%	4%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON