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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3568 Southwest SJC 08:47 BNA 15:12 7% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 9h 15m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 7h 16m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 8h 35m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 7h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 58m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 6h 51m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 10h 19m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:03 → PHX 08:02AA 1358 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 09:18 → BNA 14:48AA 1370 6h 45m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:05 → BNA 17:15AA 1181 9h 14m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32AA 2046 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 6h 22m 73% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON