Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2753 SJC 07:50 → BUR 09:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2396 SJC 14:59 → BUR 16:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2753 Southwest	SJC 07:50	BUR 09:02	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 3574 Southwest	SJC 00:15	BUR 01:27	5%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2497 Southwest	SJC 10:12	BUR 11:29	8%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2756 Southwest	SJC 11:54	BUR 13:08	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 1662 Southwest	SJC 18:24	BUR 19:38	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2396 Southwest	SJC 14:59	BUR 16:09	9%	2%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON