Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 3576 Southwest	SJC 22:33	BWI 06:47	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	8h 55m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928	9h 06m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	SJC 16:43 → SEA 18:51AS 745	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781	9h 58m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON