Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1019 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 1019 SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2046 SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:23	DFW 20:34	14%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 11:55	DFW 17:32	16%	4%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON