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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 7h 46m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 33m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:43 → SEA 18:51AS 745 3h 49m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 11h 16m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 8h 18m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527 8h 12m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:59 → EWR 19:41AA 2861 10h 40m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32AA 2046 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:23 → EWR 22:56AA 618 8h 01m 74% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON