Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	8h 44m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	10h 19m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	9h 01m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	SJC 16:43 → SEA 18:51AS 745	3h 52m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	10h 56m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	6h 49m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541	9h 33m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON