Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644	9h 19m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287	7h 00m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	9h 17m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	6h 10m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:24 → IAH 17:26DL 1131	8h 51m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 08m	95%	80%
American Details →	SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32AA 2046	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → IAH 21:21AA 1392	7h 26m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON