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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:02, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SJC 16:02 → PHX 17:56AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 3h 54m Phoenix PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587 10h 45m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 23:45 → JFK 06:06 +1DL 1909 10h 05m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692 7h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 9h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Seattle SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452 9h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Seattle SEA 17:00 → JFK 00:53 +1DL 1044 10h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671 8h 40m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON