Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2972 SJC 06:40 → LAS 08:17 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 367 SJC 18:08 → LAS 19:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2972 Southwest	SJC 06:40	LAS 08:17	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4109 Southwest	SJC 08:35	LAS 10:05	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1088 Southwest	SJC 11:13	LAS 12:41	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3593 Southwest	SJC 16:54	LAS 18:22	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1702 Southwest	SJC 11:52	LAS 13:22	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1407 Southwest	SJC 19:31	LAS 20:56	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3749 Southwest	SJC 13:42	LAS 15:15	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 367 Southwest	SJC 18:08	LAS 19:38	9%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON