Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3596 SJC 06:50 → LAX 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1881 SJC 17:03 → LAX 18:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3596 Southwest	SJC 06:50	LAX 08:15	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 4537 Southwest	SJC 13:36	LAX 14:51	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 23:05	LAX 00:33	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1362 Delta	SJC 06:46	LAX 08:09	7%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	SJC 18:13	LAX 19:32	8%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:30	LAX 12:47	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 19:55	LAX 21:22	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3601 Southwest	SJC 18:41	LAX 19:57	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	SJC 09:41	LAX 11:03	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2347 Southwest	SJC 09:34	LAX 10:45	11%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1881 Southwest	SJC 17:03	LAX 18:18	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON