Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733	7h 30m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	3h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	9h 58m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	10h 52m	99%	87%
American Details →	SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32AA 2046	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → LGA 23:56AA 1375	9h 01m	93%	77%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:51 → LGA 18:26AA 1806	9h 25m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON