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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Seattle, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 45m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 59m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 8h 18m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 7h 48m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 8h 12m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056 7h 15m 90% 73%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:03 → PHX 08:02AA 1358 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → MCO 17:34AA 603 8h 31m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 46m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225 7h 44m 89% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON