Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	9h 15m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:54 → MIA 18:51DL 719	9h 16m	99%	74%
American Details →	SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32AA 2046	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → MIA 00:28 +1AA 2090	9h 33m	96%	74%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:08 → MIA 17:12AA 2461	8h 11m	96%	71%
American Details →	SJC 06:03 → PHX 08:02AA 1358	56m Phoenix	PHX 08:58 → MIA 16:34AA 1968	7h 31m	85%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON