Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2156 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:20	MSP 11:59	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:10	MSP 18:44	7%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 40m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	9h 59m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 47m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 12:16 → MSP 17:35DL 536	8h 15m	98%	86%
American Details →	SJC 06:03 → PHX 08:02AA 1358	1h 26m Phoenix	PHX 09:28 → MSP 14:43AA 408	6h 40m	97%	85%
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:36AS 762	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 12:54 → MSP 18:07AS 772	7h 47m	100%	82%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:27 → MSP 17:01AA 2406	9h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:55 → SEA 17:09DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest	56m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	6h 35m	88%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON