tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:59, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2740 United SJC 06:18 ORD 12:38 6% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1650 United SJC 14:00 ORD 20:13 13% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SJC 16:02 → PHX 17:56AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 19:13 → ORD 00:43 +1AA 2201 6h 41m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 9h 13m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533 6h 45m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 10h 03m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 50m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:32AA 2046 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 9h 44m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563 6h 42m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 14:40 → ORD 18:57DL 2377 7h 12m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON