Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 754 SJC 06:48 → PDX 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 694 SJC 14:25 → PDX 16:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 754 Alaska	SJC 06:48	PDX 08:43	3%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 3379 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:39	PDX 13:44	5%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 2749 Southwest	SJC 12:19	PDX 14:12	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 714 Southwest	SJC 18:55	PDX 20:47	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 694 Alaska	SJC 14:25	PDX 16:15	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2256 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 09:46	PDX 11:31	4%	4%	1.9%	96%
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 12:03	PDX 13:48	33%	14%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON