Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4986 SJC 08:49 → PHX 10:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 900 SJC 18:50 → PHX 20:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4986 Southwest	SJC 08:49	PHX 10:40	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1358 American Flight history →	SJC 06:03	PHX 08:02	7%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 148 Southwest	SJC 12:00	PHX 13:50	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SJC 16:02	PHX 17:56	12%	3%	0.9%	97%
WN 3616 Southwest	SJC 16:03	PHX 17:56	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 900 Southwest	SJC 18:50	PHX 20:40	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON