Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3619 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3619 SJC 06:30 → SAN 08:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3621 SJC 14:31 → SAN 15:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3619 Southwest	SJC 06:30	SAN 08:03	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3620 Southwest	SJC 08:31	SAN 09:56	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1448 Alaska	SJC 07:13	SAN 08:38	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 3212 SkyWest	SJC 20:03	SAN 21:40	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 3039 SkyWest	SJC 09:58	SAN 11:37	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3627 Southwest	SJC 21:19	SAN 22:47	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4540 Southwest	SJC 12:49	SAN 14:17	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1132 Southwest	SJC 10:09	SAN 11:37	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1982 Southwest	SJC 11:26	SAN 12:54	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3626 Southwest	SJC 19:20	SAN 20:46	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 436 Southwest	SJC 16:22	SAN 17:51	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3148 Southwest	SJC 16:56	SAN 18:24	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3621 Southwest	SJC 14:31	SAN 15:58	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 2213 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 20:12	SAN 21:48	41%	8%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON