Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 4100 at 20:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 4100 SJC 20:59 → SEA 23:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 762 SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:36 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:59	SEA 23:23	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:55	SEA 20:13	9%	5%	0.5%	87%
WN 3628 Southwest	SJC 06:35	SEA 08:49	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	10%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 3195 Southwest	SJC 13:06	SEA 15:13	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	13%	4%	0.6%	95%
WN 2449 Southwest	SJC 17:04	SEA 19:12	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 1398 Alaska	SJC 20:43	SEA 22:48	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 745 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 16:43	SEA 18:51	17%	3%	0.7%	83%
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	20%	3%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 14:11	SEA 16:18	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 762 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:20	SEA 10:36	28%	3%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON