Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 346 SJC 07:10 → SNA 08:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 451 SJC 10:52 → SNA 12:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 346 Southwest	SJC 07:10	SNA 08:31	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2884 Southwest	SJC 08:42	SNA 10:04	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1765 Southwest	SJC 14:57	SNA 16:22	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3640 Southwest	SJC 19:38	SNA 20:59	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2888 Southwest	SJC 17:49	SNA 19:11	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 451 Southwest	SJC 10:52	SNA 12:13	14%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON