Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1763 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1763 SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 2871 SJU 14:33 → ATL 18:48 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1763 Delta Flight history →	SJU 07:30	ATL 11:14	5%	3%	0.8%	96%
DL 1882 Delta Flight history →	SJU 14:42	ATL 18:36	7%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 1946 Delta Flight history →	SJU 17:50	ATL 21:49	7%	4%	0.7%	88%
F9 2871 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 14:33	ATL 18:48	26%	9%	0.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON