Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:31 pm at San Juan); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Hartford on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444	7h 04m	96%	87%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 16:25 → FLL 19:14B6 154	54m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:08 → BDL 23:14B6 460	6h 49m	75%	54%
American Details →	SJU 16:18 → CLT 20:05AA 783	56m Charlotte	CLT 21:01 → BDL 23:00AA 2763	6h 42m	77%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON