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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via JFK, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 55m New York JFK 13:25 → BUF 14:45DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 7h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 8h 33m 99% 87%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 05:01 → BOS 09:01B6 562 3h 00m Boston BOS 12:01 → BUF 13:47B6 915 8h 46m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 17m 100% 83%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 10:25 → JFK 14:34B6 904 2h 12m New York JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202 8h 01m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 1h 44m New York JFK 19:03 → BUF 20:24DL 5250 · flown by Endeavor 7h 14m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 7h 11m 94% 77%
FrontierDetails → SJU 10:43 → MCO 13:55F9 2981 1h 20m Orlando MCO 15:15 → BUF 18:20F9 1692 7h 37m 89% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON