Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2116 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2116 SJU 05:52 → BWI 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2265 SJU 16:24 → BWI 20:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2116 Southwest	SJU 05:52	BWI 10:00	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3642 Southwest	SJU 06:05	BWI 10:09	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4064 Southwest	SJU 14:27	BWI 18:34	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2265 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 16:24	BWI 20:35	24%	7%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON