Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Miami, leaving 05:58, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 783 American Flight history →	SJU 15:40	CLT 19:39	12%	3%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 01m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780	1h 21m Boston	BOS 19:40 → CLT 22:20DL 5807 · flown by Republic	8h 12m	92%	85%
American Details →	SJU 05:58 → MIA 08:51AA 3089	1h 04m Miami	MIA 09:55 → CLT 11:50AA 1398	5h 52m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 08m	88%	81%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 17m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	9h 02m	96%	80%
American Details →	SJU 11:46 → MIA 14:43AA 1341	1h 18m Miami	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	6h 36m	95%	76%
United Details →	SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173	1h 39m Newark	EWR 19:18 → CLT 21:26UA 1168	8h 01m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966	3h 10m New York	JFK 20:29 → CLT 23:03DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor	9h 52m	99%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON