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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Newark, leaving 01:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 30m Newark EWR 08:40 → DTW 10:46UA 3700 · flown by Republic 9h 46m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 37m New York JFK 13:07 → DTW 14:58DL 1654 7h 23m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 8h 12m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173 3h 43m Newark EWR 21:22 → DTW 23:31UA 3412 · flown by Republic 10h 06m 98% 89%
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 2h 57m Orlando MCO 09:07 → DTW 11:55F9 2529 8h 45m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 2h 11m New York JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253 8h 54m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 05m Houston IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa 10h 59m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651 9h 02m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON