Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2036 SJU 18:45 → EWR 22:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 1990 SJU 15:00 → EWR 19:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2036 United Flight history →	SJU 18:45	EWR 22:55	14%	5%	0.8%	84%
UA 2219 United Flight history →	SJU 01:00	EWR 05:10	15%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 1173 United Flight history →	SJU 13:25	EWR 17:39	15%	5%	0.8%	66%
B6 1990 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 15:00	EWR 19:05	23%	9%	0.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON