Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 3017 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day F9 3017 SJU 08:32 → FLL 11:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 154 SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3017 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 08:32	FLL 11:41	10%	3%	1.0%	83%
B6 1454 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:05	FLL 16:47	16%	6%	0.8%	70%
B6 154 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 17:00	FLL 19:42	21%	8%	0.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON