Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:35 am at San Juan)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26% (calm day: 13%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:42, 74% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 43m	92%	74%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 14:27 → FLL 17:16B6 1454	1h 45m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 19:01 → HPN 22:11B6 914	7h 44m	91%	66%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 14:44 → MCO 17:55B6 934	2h 22m Orlando	MCO 20:17 → HPN 23:11B6 1694	8h 27m	94%	63%
American Details →	SJU 13:07 → CLT 16:58AA 3187	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:29AA 5016 · flown by PSA	7h 22m	80%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON