Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2024 at 16:55, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2024 United Flight history →	SJU 16:55	IAD 20:56	8%	3%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 31m	96%	88%
United Details →	SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 22:07 → IAD 01:10 +1UA 1922	9h 14m	98%	86%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	4h 00m Houston	IAH 14:53 → IAD 19:15UA 1178	12h 15m	100%	86%
Frontier Details →	SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823	1h 49m Orlando	MCO 07:59 → IAD 10:33F9 4230	7h 23m	95%	85%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → IAD 23:44AA 2608	8h 04m	99%	83%
United Details →	SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668	1h 31m Houston	IAH 20:22 → IAD 00:42 +1UA 1968	9h 47m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 51m	93%	81%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	50m Newark	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	6h 22m	81%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON