Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1854 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1854 SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 1004 SJU 13:30 → JFK 17:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1854 Delta Flight history →	SJU 07:35	JFK 11:30	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 1966 Delta Flight history →	SJU 13:10	JFK 17:19	7%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 904 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 10:26	JFK 14:25	11%	3%	0.8%	75%
B6 2904 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:01	JFK 08:54	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
B6 1004 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 13:30	JFK 17:29	16%	5%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON