Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 9781 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 9781 SJU 07:00 → MIA 10:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1734 SJU 15:00 → MIA 17:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 9781 American	SJU 07:00	MIA 10:02	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3089 American Flight history →	SJU 05:58	MIA 08:51	5%	2%	0.7%	97%
F9 3377 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 02:53	MIA 06:05	8%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 1341 American Flight history →	SJU 11:46	MIA 14:43	10%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 967 American Flight history →	SJU 18:06	MIA 21:07	19%	10%	0.9%	63%
AA 1734 American	SJU 15:00	MIA 17:59	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON