Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2088 United Flight history →	SJU 15:56	ORD 20:15	11%	4%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	2h 30m Dulles	IAD 23:26 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 3932	8h 50m	99%	92%
United Details →	SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668	3h 17m Houston	IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752	10h 50m	99%	87%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	2h 49m Newark	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	9h 43m	96%	87%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	2h 56m Houston	IAH 13:49 → ORD 16:37UA 1299	10h 37m	99%	87%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → ORD 23:41AA 627	9h 01m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	7h 44m	99%	86%
United Details →	SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368	2h 08m Denver	DEN 20:23 → ORD 23:53UA 377	11h 13m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	7h 03m	89%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON