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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 8h 20m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 39m Dulles IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677 6h 49m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 3h 33m New York JFK 15:03 → ORF 16:28DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor 8h 53m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 20:48 → ORF 22:31DL 2731 7h 49m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 57m Atlanta ATL 22:46 → ORF 00:34 +1DL 2338 6h 44m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 22:25 → ORF 23:41AA 2674 8h 01m 99% 79%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 46m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:33 → ORF 22:56B6 1800 8h 51m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SJU 13:07 → CLT 16:59AA 3187 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45AA 5622 · flown by PSA 8h 38m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 51m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:33 → ORF 22:56B6 1800 5h 56m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON