Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3025 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 3025 SJU 07:37 → PHL 11:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2695 SJU 00:57 → PHL 05:01 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3025 American	SJU 07:37	PHL 11:56	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 1048 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 07:45	PHL 11:46	12%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 621 American	SJU 14:10	PHL 18:07	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 1725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:21	PHL 21:27	27%	10%	1.0%	60%
F9 2695 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 00:57	PHL 05:01	46%	11%	2.3%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON