Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Providence on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → PVD 16:49DL 2314	9h 19m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	9h 15m	99%	87%
American Details →	SJU 16:18 → CLT 20:05AA 783	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 21:23 → PVD 23:29AA 2318	7h 11m	93%	73%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 14:27 → FLL 17:15B6 1454	3h 16m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:31 → PVD 23:36B6 1196	9h 09m	97%	67%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 08:25 → MCO 11:33B6 1134	2h 29m Orlando	MCO 14:02 → PVD 16:52B6 1075	8h 27m	96%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON