Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: B6 452 at 09:21, 13%.

Safest bet that day B6 452 SJU 09:21 → TPA 12:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 2541 SJU 17:59 → TPA 21:21 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 452 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 09:21	TPA 12:40	13%	5%	1.6%	97%
WN 4317 Southwest	SJU 13:24	TPA 16:28	19%	4%	1.3%	no record
F9 2541 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:59	TPA 21:21	34%	12%	3.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON