Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4609 SLC 05:57 → ABQ 07:51 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3726 SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4609 SkyWest	SLC 05:57	ABQ 07:51	2%	2%	0.4%	no record
OO 124 SkyWest	SLC 09:24	ABQ 11:13	3%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 3729 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:45	ABQ 22:30	4%	2%	0.4%	90%
DL 3726 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:25	ABQ 19:12	5%	2%	0.4%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON