Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 907 SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 875 SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 907 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:00	ATL 12:44	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 897 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:10	ATL 13:54	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 835 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:55	ATL 15:39	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 905 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:55	ATL 23:58	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 912 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:35	ATL 05:14	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 885 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:05	ATL 16:49	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 906 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:35	ATL 19:22	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 875 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:31	ATL 21:25	11%	4%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON