Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2671 SLC 07:45 → AUS 11:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2728 SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	AUS 11:25	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 805 Southwest	SLC 11:24	AUS 15:09	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2689 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:29	AUS 17:19	12%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2728 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	AUS 21:30	13%	3%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON