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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 696 SLC 23:32 → BOS 06:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 702 SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 696 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:32 BOS 06:05 8% 2% 0.6% 92%
DL 657 Delta Flight history → SLC 09:50 BOS 16:36 10% 2% 0.6% 82%
DL 702 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:15 BOS 23:47 13% 3% 0.6% 79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 51m Denver DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49UA 558 6h 34m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 58m Denver DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232 6h 44m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 47m Denver DEN 15:38 → BOS 21:41UA 1912 6h 36m 90% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON