Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	DCA 16:35	11%	2%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 44m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	3h 29m Boston	BOS 20:05 → DCA 22:03DL 5666 · flown by Republic	10h 13m	99%	88%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678	8h 42m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	2h 08m Hebron	CVG 17:11 → DCA 18:47DL 5134 · flown by Endeavor	7h 06m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 56m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	9h 37m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	8h 52m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON