Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 5683 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 5683 SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4252 SLC 16:07 → DEN 17:48 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 05:15	DEN 06:54	2%	1%	0.5%	95%
WN 3658 Southwest	SLC 06:46	DEN 08:21	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 4720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:05	DEN 14:51	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DEN 08:42	5%	2%	0.4%	95%
UA 5642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:30	DEN 10:27	5%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 4673 Southwest	SLC 09:07	DEN 10:51	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	DEN 09:12	6%	1%	0.4%	95%
WN 4399 Southwest	SLC 12:10	DEN 13:33	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4454 Southwest	SLC 00:24	DEN 01:41	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:15	DEN 11:47	7%	2%	0.4%	84%
UA 2090 United	SLC 10:27	DEN 11:59	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2410 Southwest	SLC 18:52	DEN 20:18	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1667 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:30	DEN 22:01	10%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 1586 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:30	DEN 20:01	12%	2%	0.5%	71%
F9 3862 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 08:16	DEN 10:01	13%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 3662 Southwest	SLC 15:50	DEN 17:14	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1662 United Flight history →	SLC 14:28	DEN 16:11	15%	3%	0.4%	79%
WN 375 Southwest	SLC 16:59	DEN 18:21	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3982 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 13:12	DEN 14:52	15%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:19	DEN 16:47	16%	2%	0.4%	85%
UA 1955 United	SLC 17:55	DEN 19:44	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
F9 4252 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 16:07	DEN 17:48	19%	4%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON