Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4608 SLC 06:47 → DTW 12:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2244 SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4608 SkyWest	SLC 06:47	DTW 12:55	4%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2289 Delta Flight history →	SLC 06:00	DTW 11:24	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2236 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:45	DTW 15:12	7%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 2255 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:28	DTW 23:59	10%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 2244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DTW 19:15	11%	2%	0.5%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON