Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2038 SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2109 SLC 11:42 → EWR 18:18 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2038 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:38	EWR 06:00	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	EWR 16:49	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 2109 United	SLC 11:42	EWR 18:18	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	6h 12m	94%	87%
United Details →	SLC 12:42 → ORD 16:53UA 1382	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:53 → EWR 21:05UA 2790	6h 23m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON